By Jim Stefkovich, Meteorologist, Alabama Emergency Management Agency
CLANTON –Friday, 8:00 am, July 17, 2026
Since yesterday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has shifted the area of potential low-pressure formation westward to just south of Baldwin County.
Let me start by saying models will struggle with both where and how strong this system will become until the system actually develops.
Two scenarios are possible right now. The first is that the system develops this weekend near the coast and is quickly pushed into Florida and the Atlantic next week. The second is that the area of low pressure develops over the Gulf by late this weekend and meanders into early next week. This would give it more time over the open waters, with a better chance to organize.
I want to stress that at this point, there is still “just” a 20% chance of tropical development, and the current NWS forecast has no wind or rainfall impacts in the state into early next week.
Now is a good time to either develop or review your tropical storm/hurricane plan. You can find it here.
