An upper-level disturbance will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern half of the state today, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the southern half. A few storms could produce winds of 40-60 mph and hail to golfball size between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m.
The tornado threat is very low, but a brief tornado or two are possible south of I-85 and east of I-65 or south and east of an Auburn – Montgomery – Mobile line.
Non-thunderstorm winds will be on the increase Friday morning and by afternoon gusts of 15-25 mph will occur increasing to 20-30 mph Friday evening into Saturday morning.
As shown in the graphic above, isolated to scattered supercells are expected to develop across the Enhanced and Slight Risk areas Friday evening and continue into Saturday morning. Any supercell that develops has the potential to produce EF2+, long-tracked tornadoes, damaging winds in excess of 70 mph and large hail.
On Saturday, non-thunderstorm winds will increase in the morning with gusts from 25-40 mph across the state lasting into Sunday morning. It looks like there will be a break in severe weather from mid-morning into early afternoon before redevelopment of scattered to numerous supercells during the afternoon followed by a line of intense storms.
The activity will begin Saturday afternoon across the northern and western sections of the state, move eastward through the overnight hours and exit the southeastern sections by 6 am Sunday morning.
Do not focus on whether you are in the Moderate or Enhanced Risk area! The entire state has the potential for strong to violent, long-track tornadoes, swaths of straight-line winds in excess of 70 mph, large hail, and heavy rainfall that could produce flooding.
Will the severe weather from Friday through early Sunday be like April 27, 2011? No. That was a generational event. But, this does have the potential to be the largest the state has seen in a few years.
Don’t wait any longer if you haven’t developed a severe weather plan. Go to ready.gov
Get helmets and put them on when you get to your safe place during a warning. Sporting, work and bicycle helmets are all good options.
