Cold today into Tuesday with potential winter weather late week

CLANTON, Ala. – A chilly couple of days with high temperatures both today and Tuesday from the 40s north to the 50s south.  Lows tonight will be teens north and 20s elsewhere except for the lower 30s at the coast. A slight warming trend will occur from Wednesday into Thursday, but it will remain cool. 

Rain showers are likely across much of the state Wednesday night into Thursday, but total amounts will be light.

All eyes will focus on a system from Friday night into early Sunday, including the potential for winter weather, especially for the northern half of the state.  Let me start off by saying DO NOT look at a particular weather model/accumulations or social media posts and believe it. 

It is too early to determine at this point.Here’s what we know and don’t know:

What we know: As shown in the graphic below, a large area of high pressure with very cold Arctic air (highlighted in purple) will spread southward mid to late week into the northern and central US.  From Friday night through Saturday night, southerly winds will pump Gulf moisture northward into the southern states.  As a result, precipitation is likely during this time frame across Alabama.

What we don’t know yet: Both how far south and the depth of the cold air across the state for the event.  If temperatures remain slightly above freezing, then just a cold rain will occur.  If temperatures drop to freezing or below, but the cold air is shallow, precipitation would fall as freezing rain. In this scenario, significant impacts are possible.If the surface temperatures are below freezing and through a large depth of the atmosphere, snow and or sleet would be more likely.  Finally, there could be areas of snow, sleet and freezing rain in different parts of Alabama.